What Leaders are Thinking 

John Schmidt, program manager for the Great Lakes St. Lawrence Governors & Premiers’ (GSGP) Regional Maritime Initiative, said the top priority for the region’s governors is the continued and efficient federal funding to complete the construction of the new Soo Lock. He notes that “Federal programs supporting port modernization, lock maintenance and dredging operations will also influence shipping efficiency and reliability, which are key to the long-term competitiveness of regional transportation.” More than 250 million tons of cargo are transported on this system each year, so these programs and policies matter a great deal. 

 GSGP co-founded the region’s Smart Ships Coalition, which includes the U.S. Geological Survey, other federal and state agencies, academic, industry and international organizations who Schmidt notes “share a common interest in the advancement and application of autonomous technologies operated in marine environments. Continued federal involvement is critical to identify and address opportunities to apply autonomous technologies to improve how and what we do in the marine environment.” 

  University of Manitoba Professor of Supply Chain Management Barry Prentice directs the Transport Institute in Canada. He’s focused on the impact of Trump administration tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to the United States. “The Seaway moves a lot of iron ore from Quebec to U.S. blast furnaces. It is an important move in two traffic because the ships carry grain on the return downstream voyage from the Upper Lakes to the transfer locations on the lower St. Lawrence River,” he said. “If Canadian iron ore is not restricted by import tariffs, the demand from the U.S. steel plants could be greater behind the tariff barrier. This is a long way of saying, traffic could increase.” 

Prentice is pleased that the Seaway is important to both sides of the border, and it is jointly administered. “Given President Trump’s ruminations on annexing Canada, I am not sure that he would want to do anything that would make the current relationship work better. If we had no border the Great Lakes could become a viable market for the cruise industry. This is now blocked by cabotage restrictions and customs procedures,” he said. “Of course, we could change these rules without political union, if there were political will. Most Canadians are flattered by the offer to join the United States but prefer to be the masters of our own house.” 

 In Prentice’s view, “the current trade on the Seaway is mature and the supply chains are well-established. Disrupting the logistics system by diverting trade or ignoring bottlenecks can never grow the economy.” To the degree that tariffs reduce demand, it will be felt by the transportation industry because it is a derived demand. He is quick to remind that “less trade is never good, but remember it is Congress that signs treaties and imposes tariffs. Trump may wish to act like a dictator, but he must share power with other branches of government.” 

Near-term threats loom very large for many experts, including Prentice. “The biggest physical risk to the Seaway is climate change. The advocacy of burning more oil in the United States is unlikely to slow global warming. This means less ice cover and more evaporation that could lower the vessel loading,” he said. “Of course, maybe we will get more rain, too. Also, warmer winters could extend the navigation season year-round. We are part of an uncontrolled science experiment.” 

Jim Weakley, who’s served as president of Lake Carriers’ Association since January 2003, said he is “hopeful that policies will be adopted that protect and promote America’s national security interests, economic growth, the Great Lakes Navigation System and the competitive nature of the U.S.-flagged carriers that the LCA represents.  With that in mind, I remain optimistic that the current administration will do all the above.” 

 The new administration’s focus on the Polar Region and its icebreaking needs could benefit the Great Lakes.  Weakley said that LCA continues “to make the case that our icebreaking needs are part of the Coast Guard’s icebreaking program.  Many of the technical skills gained by shipyards and Coast Guard sailors on the Great Lakes easily transfer to their polar program.  I am hopeful that the new administration will fund the construction of a new Great Lakes icebreaker that is at least as capable as the USCGC Mackinaw.  I’m also hopeful that they will either repower the 140-foot icebreaking tugs or move forward with replacing them.”

 The new administration sees the domestic steel industry and trade policy as one part of their larger national security strategy.  LCA members’ cargo numbers are tied to the success of the domestic steel industry.  Weakley said he is “hopeful that the new administration will adopt policies that feed our nation’s blast furnaces.   Increased domestic steel production can be increased via trade policy, a more robust economy or both.” 

 Other policy moves that could benefit LCA members include investment in infrastructure projects that require more construction stone and an “all of the above” energy policy that includes coal. “Anything that furthers America’s national security interests, stimulates the economy and supports our domestic steel industry would be good for LCA members,” Weakley said.  “I remain optimistic in the present and future of U.S.-flagged Great Lakes shipping and hope the new administration sees it the same way.” 

Bilateral Initiatives 

What about the bilateral U.S.-Canada dynamics? John Clemons, the national vice president for Great Lakes at the American Maritime Officers organization, said he is hoping that the new administration’s emphasis on the Polar Region and icebreaking could benefit the Great Lakes icebreaking mission. “Combined, the U.S. and Canadian Coast Guards have 11 vessels to assist commercial vessels transiting the Great Lakes during the ice season.  They used to have nearly twice that many.  Both fleets are badly in need of updating.  If the USCG is going to staff additional Polar icebreakers, they can prepare for that mission by developing crews and cutters for the Great Lakes.  We desperately need an additional heavy icebreaker that is at least as capable as the Mackinaw.”  He argues that the smaller 140-foot icebreaking tugs are well past their service life and during their service live extension program, their 40-plus year powerplants were not replaced. “They are experiencing engineering failures at an alarming rate, despite the valiant efforts of their crews.  We are hopeful that the new administration will fund the new heavy icebreaker and begin the recapitalization project for the icebreaking tugs.”   

Clemons goes on to say that the new administration will stop treating the Great Lakes as “a single icebreaking mission” and “put pressure” on the Canadian Coast Guard (CCG) to do more in the shared waters of the Great Lakes, not just Canadian ports: “The CCG should permanently station an additional icebreaker on the Great Lakes. Currently they provide only two while the USCG provides nine.  We’ve seen the CCG primarily support Canadian ports and Canadian lakers. They leave the USCG to manage all the shared waterways and connecting channels, in addition to U.S. and Canadian ports,” he said.  “The USCG provides significantly more support to Canadian lakers and Canadian ports than the CCG provides to Americans.  Clearly the U.S. taxpayer is subsidizing the Canadians, and the system favors Canadians at the expense of American ports and vessels.  We hope the new administration will at least look at the situation and try and level the playing field by asking the CCG to do its fair share.”

The four key areas around which U.S. leaders are focusing discussions include infrastructure investment, deregulation, trade policy and energy/resource transportation. Some proposed changes will be highly contentious, particularly in environmental regulation and labor relations. Ultimately, it all depends upon whether or not there’s any balance between one agenda – expanding the freedom of action for businesses, hardening border security – with the region’s local needs and environmental concerns. There are several areas where new action could be taken. 

1. Infrastructure Investment and Modernization

• Ports and shipping infrastructure. During his first administration, President Trump verbally supported infrastructure projects, but nothing concrete was provided–particularly in areas of great need, such as where it could help to improve logistics and trade. There could be increased funding for upgrading Great Lakes ports, including modernizing dock facilities, improving cargo handling capacity and expanding access to rail and highway networks. This might involve increasing federal investment in the infrastructure of the Great Lakes ports, making them more competitive for international and domestic shipping. 

• Waterways wnfrastructure. Maintaining and improving the inland waterways (e.g., dredging) to ensure that they remain navigable for large ships could become a priority, as it was during President Trump’s first term with initiatives like the “America First” infrastructure plan. 

2. Environmental Regulations and Policies

• Loosening environmental regulations. The Trump administration was generally skeptical of stringent environmental regulations, preferring to streamline rules that could impact business operations. President Trump might push efforts to ease regulations that affect the shipping industry, such as environmental rules regarding ballast water, emissions standards for ships and dredging activities. This could be seen to promote economic growth in the region, though it might face opposition from environmental groups. 

• Support for industry-friendly environmental policies. Vice President J.D. Vance has been critical of some environmental policies that he views as detrimental to economic development in Ohio and the broader Rust Belt region. Policies that roll back or amend parts of the Clean Water Act, for example, could be seen as beneficial for port operations and maritime traffic by reducing restrictions. 

3. Trade and Shipping Policy

• Promoting domestic industry and trade. President Trump’s team talks about new policies aimed at reducing reliance on foreign shipping and increasing domestic production. A focus on revitalizing U.S.-based manufacturing (including steel, coal and other bulk goods that are often shipped via Great Lakes routes) could lead to increased demand for Great Lakes shipping. Vice President Vance, representing a key industrial state (Ohio), is likely to say he supports new policies aimed at revitalizing the region’s manufacturing base, which would drive demand for port services. 

• Protectionist trade policies. If the United States adopts more protectionist trade policies (as President Trump did previously with tariffs), it could lead to both challenges and opportunities for Great Lakes ports. On the one hand, there might be less international trade through the Great Lakes due to higher tariffs on foreign goods, but on the other hand, there could be more regional trade within North America (especially with Canada) and a boost to local industries. 

4. Regulation of Foreign Shipping and Port Ownership

• National security concerns over foreign ownership of ports. President Trump has previously raised concerns about foreign ownership and control of key U.S. infrastructure. The Trump administration could increase scrutiny of foreign investment in Great Lakes ports, particularly by Chinese or other non-allied entities. This could lead to changes in laws governing foreign participation in port management or ownership, potentially prioritizing American control over critical maritime infrastructure. 

• Defense and military considerations. President Trump says he’s interested in strengthening the U.S. military and securing vital infrastructure. There may be efforts to ensure that Great Lakes ports are strategically useful for national defense purposes. This could lead to investments in ensuring that maritime traffic remains secure and that ports can support military mobilization if necessary. 

5. Energy and Resource Transportation

• Increase in bulk commodity shipping. The Great Lakes are a crucial route for bulk commodities such as iron ore, coal and grain. Under President Trump, policies that favor coal or energy production could see increased shipments of coal and petroleum products through the Great Lakes ports. Vice President Vance, who represents Ohio, a state historically tied to coal and industrial sectors, might also push for policies that support these industries, increasing the demand for maritime transport in the region. 

• Support for energy infrastructure. There could be more emphasis on infrastructure that supports energy production and distribution in the region. This might involve creating or improving transport routes for natural gas, oil, and other resources, using the Great Lakes system as an integral part of the supply chain 

6. Climate Change and Resilience

• Climate change adaptation policies. While President Trump’s previous term involved skepticism about the human causes of climate change, his new administration still faces pressure from regions like the Great Lakes to take actions against extreme weather events such as flooding or water level changes that could disrupt maritime traffic. While the focus would likely remain on minimizing federal regulations, there could be targeted investment in adaptation measures to safeguard key infrastructure. 

• Support for shorter shipping routes. Climate change, by affecting the frequency and intensity of weather patterns in the region, could encourage policy shifts that favor improving short shipping routes, creating more resilient supply chains. The administration might prioritize short sea shipping as an alternative to trucking, especially with the push to reduce emissions from land transport. 

7. Cooperation with Canada

• Strengthening U.S.-Canada trade relations. Since the Great Lakes are shared with Canada, President Trump’s policies could focus on facilitating cross-border trade, reducing barriers and ensuring smoother flow of goods. This could mean improving customs processes, aligning regulations and ensuring that the Great Lakes region remains competitive for both U.S. and Canadian businesses. 

• Infrastructure joint ventures. There may be efforts to collaborate on joint projects to enhance port and shipping infrastructure, possibly with a focus on cross-border transportation hubs and shared port facilities. 

8. Maritime Labor and Union Relations

• Labor relations and regulation of maritime unions. President Trump’s policies on labor often favored more flexible regulations for businesses, and this could extend to the maritime sector. Policies that affect labor unions, wage rates, or working conditions at the Great Lakes ports could be adjusted to favor employers, particularly if the President pushes for deregulatory measures. However, given the importance of unions in Great Lakes shipping, any changes might be a source of contention. 

9. Technological Innovation and Automation

• Support for port automation. President Trump says he want to support technological innovation to increase competitiveness in the American economy. In the context of Great Lakes ports, this could mean more investment in automation and smart technology to streamline port operations. This could include automated cranes, AI-based logistics systems and enhanced port security technologies. 

• Innovation in maritime shipping. Encouraging the use of more efficient and environmentally friendly shipping technologies (including the potential for electric or hydrogen-powered vessels) could be part of an effort to make Great Lakes shipping more competitive and aligned with future energy policies. 

Featured image by David Schauer